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Title: Ethanol, the energy bill, and the corn industry
Description: Corn=America


Kevin Beckman - June 19, 2005 09:48 PM (GMT)
Alternative fuel sources are a good idea. However giving a group of people who are already swimming in taxpayers money more money is not a good idea. Ethanol is a clean burning fuel, but is exspensive to make. It can be made from a few agricultural products, including corn and sugar. Ethanol is produced mainly from corn in the US. Now the corn industry in general receives an already inflated amount of welfare. Do they really need more?

Deltasix - June 19, 2005 10:31 PM (GMT)
How does the contiuned research and/or use of this compare to the the cost of oil, reliance of forgein nations to give us energy, the polution put out by fossil fuels and the like?

Kevin Beckman - June 20, 2005 12:25 AM (GMT)
That depends what you're gonna produce the ethanol from and what the net energy balance is?

I don't have uptodate figures but as of 1992 corn ethanol was $1.60 per gallon while gasoline was $0.60

Obviously prices have change alot since then.


Ethanol can be derived from corn, wheat, potato wastes, cheese whey, rice straw, sawdust, urban wastes, paper mill wastes, yard clippings, molasses, sugar cane, seaweed, surplus food crops, and other cellulose waste. Petroleum is also used to make industrial ethanol.

I'm not sure but I believe sugarcane is easiest to make ethanol from(besides petroleum which uses a different method). However the evironment of the midwest does not support the production of sugarcane. That doesn't eliminate the possibility of the use of other crops besides corn though. Sugarbeets can be grown in the area and can more efficiently be turned into ethanol than corn.

I'd say we should change some of the farmland used for corn into farmland used for the production of crops that are easier to turn into ethanol.

Deltasix - June 20, 2005 12:47 AM (GMT)
I agree with you about the overfunding of the Corn industry and the like. The gov't should break away from stuff like that, but if corn is in such abundance, and if it can be used to make Ethanol, we should be investigating the conversion of gas to ethanol. Paying the huge amounts to the industry? No, maintaining what we do pay? No, cutting it? Yeah, but still use the product that we have.

Kevin Beckman - June 20, 2005 08:05 AM (GMT)
Corn would be all well and good, but there's a problem telling what it's net fuel energy balance. Cornell University says it takes 29% more energy to produce ethanol(corn) than what ethanol has. MSU states ethanol has 56% more energy than it takes to produce it. United States Department of Agriculture says ethanol has 34% more energy than it needs to produce it. There isn't a conclusive study yet that can peg it down.

Deltasix - June 20, 2005 09:48 PM (GMT)
Thats why I say to investigate it. It might be a total dead end, who knows, but allocate investigative reasources to it to see what turns up.

Lorpius Prime - June 21, 2005 04:55 AM (GMT)
Why do we need government involvement in this at all? If ethanol is cheaper and about as useful as gasoline, the market will make the switch.

A better idea to encouraging it might be ending gasoline subsidies.

Kevin Beckman - June 21, 2005 03:27 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (Lorpius Prime @ Jun 20 2005, 11:55 PM)
Why do we need government involvement in this at all? If ethanol is cheaper and about as useful as gasoline, the market will make the switch.

Ethanol could be cheaper but if try to jump to ethanol if the net energy balance is negative it could increase our dependence on fossil fuels. So far we've got 3 suggestions for solutions.

1. Keep out of it and let the market run it's course.
2. Invest more into research and see what we can do.
3. Change a portion of corn crops to a crop that can be more efficiently be processed to ethanol

QUOTE
A better idea to encouraging it might be ending gasoline subsidies.


Agreed.

Lorpius Prime - June 21, 2005 09:46 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (Kevin Beckman)
Ethanol could be cheaper but if try to jump to ethanol if the net energy balance is negative it could increase our dependence on fossil fuels. So far we've got 3 suggestions for solutions.

1. Keep out of it and let the market run it's course.
2. Invest more into research and see what we can do.
3. Change a portion of corn crops to a crop that can be more efficiently be processed to ethanol


Well we should certainly do #2. Research is always a good thing, and the government should support it wherever possible (at least, I haven't seen a reason why it shouldn't yet).

But beyond just funding research to see if it is a viable fuel source, I think the market can handle the rest. If it does turn out to require more energy input than it stores, then I don't think any producer would see it as a profitable venture (and in which case we definitely shouldn't subsidize it, since that would just suck money out of the economy). But if it does produce a positive or null balance, and would therefore be profitable, I think we'll see #3 happening on its own.

Deltasix - June 21, 2005 10:17 PM (GMT)
And if the Market doesn't break ties with the oil industry (and if this corn gas is found to be a viable aternitive) what then? Should the gov't try to steer the market, or just let if move on as will be.

Kevin Beckman - June 22, 2005 12:36 AM (GMT)
If ethanol is cheaper I don't see how the market won't change. If the market doesn't change the government was probably already involved and probably subsidizing the hell out of gasoline.


Ofcourse the market isn't gonna drop the oil industry entirely. Oil is used for a variety of other products we need.

Deltasix - June 24, 2005 03:54 PM (GMT)
Oh, sure it won't drop oil all together, but what about giving tax breaks to those who drive ethanol cars and the like? That kind of interaction.

Kevin Beckman - June 24, 2005 07:44 PM (GMT)
I'm a little leery of tax breaks. I'd have to see how it's written before I give it an up or down.


I put this topic in the economics forum because I wasn't sure what we'd focus more on; the politics involved or how it'll affect the economy. So far we've pretty much been talking mostly politics so I'll get more into the economic impact.

The people who have the most to gain from ethanol are auto-makers. There's a potential here for GM and ford to kill foriegn auto-makers in the US if they get the ball rolling on ethanol vehicles. However if the foriegn auto-makers beat us to making ethanol vehicles it'll deal a huge blow to our auto-makers.

Deltasix - June 24, 2005 09:31 PM (GMT)
Yeah, but don't cars have to be converted to take this stuff straight? Ethanol, I know, cannot be used in great amounts in most Jeeps and the like, so really it would impact serverly all car compaines, and if gas was still availible, I doubt an Ethanol driven car would be a huge hit.

Pay a few thousand dollars more for this ethonal car, and 1 dollar a gallon for ethonal, or pay two dollars a gallon for normal gas.

Even the new eletric cars don't come close to paying for the difference as far as gas goes (the closest I think is the hybred civic)



Kevin Beckman - June 25, 2005 01:52 AM (GMT)
The average car, I think, can take a mixture 75% gasoline and 25% ethanol. It would have to modded to take a bigger mixture of ethanol, but most of the mods needed are relatively minor. Actually as I look at a wikipedia article there's a good portion of cars made already(since 1999) that can take mixture levels of up to 85% ethanol. I guess auto-makers have already stepped upto the plate.

"The term "E85" is used for a mixture of 15% gasoline and 85% ethanol. Beginning with the model year 1999, an increasing number of vehicles in the world are manufactured with engines which can run on any gasoline from 0% ethanol up to 85% ethanol without modification. Many light trucks (a class containing minivans, SUVs and pickup trucks) are desgined to be dual fuel or flexible fuel vehicles, since they can automatically detect the type of fuel and change the engine's behavior, principally air-to-fuel ratio and ignition timing to compensate for the different octane levels of the fuel in the engine cylinders."
From: Wikipedia

I guess we're a hell of alot closer than I realized.


Deltasix - June 25, 2005 03:47 AM (GMT)
Huh, me too. I could've sworn there was somthing about jeeps not being able to take ethanol. Or methonal.
Or somthing.

Anyways, yeah, if we are that close, it wouldn't be a large devolpment issue, I see little standing in the way of it becoming more widespread if, as you said, the car american companies thought it out.

Deltasix - April 22, 2006 04:05 AM (GMT)
QUOTE
Switch to Ethanol-Based Fuel Causing Disruptions

By VIKAS BAJAJ and JAD MOUAWAD
Published: April 21, 2006


Drivers up and down the East Coast are encountering scattered gasoline outages as petroleum suppliers and filling stations scramble to change over to ethanol-based fuel ahead of a May 5 deadline and the summer driving season.

The disruptions come as average retail gasoline prices topped $2.85 a gallon nationally and oil futures passed the $75-a-barrel mark in New York trading.

A few dozen gas stations from as far south as Virginia to as far north as southern New Jersey were reportedly closed today as they switched from gasoline mixed with the additive MTBE, or Methyl tert-butyl ether, to fuel that is combined with ethanol.

Though it has been anticipated for months, the transition is proving difficult in some areas because suppliers and gas stations must first drain and clean their hulking storage tanks. Getting ethanol from the Midwest to the rest of the country has also proven a challenge. Last month, 60 service stations near Dallas ran dry because of the switchover.

"It's unfortunate; however it's a necessary transition," said John Eichberger, director of motor fuel issues for the National Association of Convenience Stores. "It's happening all up and down the coast from Richmond to Philadelphia."

New York and Connecticut, which have already banned MTBE, are not experiencing outages.

A federal energy bill passed last year removed requirements that refiners blend gasoline with an oxygenate known as MTBE. The chemical allows gasoline to burn more thoroughly and cause less smog but it also causes groundwater contamination. The law, which becomes effective May 5, also increased the content of ethanol, another oxygenate, in gasoline and removed legal immunity for companies that use MTBE.

Ethanol, however, comes with its own challenges, mostly logistical. Because of its chemical composition, ethanol cannot be blended with gasoline at the refinery, like MTBE is. Instead, it must be mixed later in the process, at the last major point of distribution before it reaches services stations, typically large terminals at the outskirts of cities.

The switchover to ethanol is further complicated by its coincidence with the annual transition from winter-blend gasoline to summer-blend fuels, said Michael D. Ward, the executive director of the Virginia Petroleum Council. In his state the disruptions are concentrated in Hampton Roads, Richmond and Northern Virginia.

"As you clean out these tanks, you also have to get the ethanol in place where it is needed," he said. "So it's a delicate balance."

A spokesman for BP, the oil company, said some service stations served from its terminals in the Philadelphia area experienced sporadic outages in recent days. "It should be very short-lived," the spokesman, Scott Dean, said.

Since the energy law was passed last year, analysts and oil executives have warned that the switch from MTBE would lead to some shortfalls in gasoline production.

The issue has caused alarm at the Department of Energy, which issued a stark report in February about the looming problem and warning of a possible shortfall of 130,000 barrels a day that ethanol producers would not be able to fill; the nation uses about 8 million barrels of gasoline a day. The alarm was sufficient to prompt Congress to hold hearings late last month to warn refiners about potential shortages.

The East Coast and Texas, primarily Dallas and Houston, will face the brunt of the problems because they are the last remaining users of MTBE gasoline.

Many parts of the nation, such as California and New York, have already stopped using MTBE and switched to ethanol. For the rest, ethanol imports from Brazil and elsewhere is one alternative, albeit a costly one because foreign-made ethanol is subject to an import tax of 54-cent a gallon.

"There should be sufficient ethanol to meet demand," Rex Tillerson, Exxon Mobil's chairman, said last month, but he added "it's a logistical and distribution challenge in ensuring it gets to the right place where its needed."

David Kocieniewski contributed reporting for this article.
Ny Times

kybudman - April 22, 2006 08:45 AM (GMT)
If the topic is alternative fuels, I think that biodiesel is really promising.
The major cost of ethanol is not in manufacturing, but in government regulation. Giving a production crop to the dying family farm in America can be a good thing, but guess who's gotta get their grubby little mitts into it?

Deltasix - April 22, 2006 03:03 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (kybudman @ Apr 22 2006, 03:45 AM)
If the topic is alternative fuels, I think that biodiesel is really promising.
The major cost of ethanol is not in manufacturing, but in government regulation. Giving a production crop to the dying family farm in America can be a good thing, but guess who's gotta get their grubby little mitts into it?

Meh, we are mostly focusing on the economic side of ethanol, I'm pretty sure there is a topic concerning alterntive fuels in the science section. I happen to agree that biodesial (from what little I know about it) looks interesting ;).

Production costs are still very high at the moment though. If they put what they made back into their production plant, rather than ship it out, it would seem to make more sense to me.

Keys - April 24, 2006 02:43 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (kybudman @ Apr 22 2006, 03:45 AM)
If the topic is alternative fuels, I think that biodiesel is really promising.
The major cost of ethanol is not in manufacturing, but in government regulation. Giving a production crop to the dying family farm in America can be a good thing, but guess who's gotta get their grubby little mitts into it?

Wouldn't the family farms step up to fill in the gap of food production if the coporate farms focused on fuel producing crops? Each would find their own niche so to speak?

Has anyone found any information on the long term damage to the land is the main source of fuel becomes biocrops? Would it lead to cropping the ocean floor for replacement fertilizer? I can't see the long term picture and risks. Risk management should be a consideration on whatever long term goal. Personally I'd like to see further investment into improving the effecient use of solar energy but until then biofuels seem the best option. At least they don't put out the MTBE? that fossil fuels put out and contaminate the water.

RancerDS - April 24, 2006 09:59 PM (GMT)
Ah, at least one other person knows about contamination through the use of MTBE. MTBE is a fuel additive that was supposedly used to decrease the dangerous fuel emissions and part of the "clean air" legislation that the Bush's supported. Ironically, the benefits are very minimal as compared to the contamination risks to all water supplies (both underground and reservoirs).

MTBE additives could stop being added to fuels, but then any chemical companies profitting from this additive would be lobbying Washington D.C. again. Wonder how those "fat cat" executives would feel if they were brought to the table and taking a chance of drinking a glass of contaminated water (as cleverly used in the movie "Erin Brokovich"). A movie that I still enjoy greatly is called "A Civil Action", which is about contaminated water supplies and a true story of how one lawyer risked it all to expose the truth.

Bless the lawyers that are born with a conscience.... and doubly-bless those that are honest. :)

Deltasix - April 28, 2006 12:50 PM (GMT)
QUOTE
Wouldn't the family farms step up to fill in the gap of food production if the coporate farms focused on fuel producing crops? Each would find their own niche so to speak?


The coporate farms really don't don't have a gap in production, as far as I know. As a matter of fact, they overproduce, and accordingly don't have a serious problem or "niche opening." If anyone has data that proves me wrong, I'd be happy to see it. I'm not 100% certain.

QUOTE
Has anyone found any information on the long term damage to the land is the main source of fuel becomes biocrops?


The main concern, by alot of crop growers is cross contamination with the type of crops you eat. That would be bad. ;)


Keys - April 28, 2006 05:36 PM (GMT)
QUOTE
The main concern, by alot of crop growers is cross contamination with the type of crops you eat. That would be bad.


Can you elaborate?

Deltasix - April 28, 2006 05:47 PM (GMT)
Not really, I'm not too certain on it outside of what they might use to grow the fuel crops probably would be...somthing that seriously harms you if you eat it. That, and the quality would be a concern for the shippment vegitables, and not the other ones.

Keys - April 28, 2006 06:29 PM (GMT)
I don't know about harmful. I'm aware that the difference between corn grown for ethanol and corn grown for eating consumption is that ethanol directed corn stores starches more rapidly. With eating corn you want to maintain simpler sugars as starchy overripe doesn't taste good. Cross pollination could give eating corn a shorter shelf life. But I don't think there's any poisinous nature involvement and both products are 100% biodegradable.

But sugar beets are much better source to focus on than corn. They have more energy potential and can be grown twice a year. Why is corn getting such favoritism anyways? Its not in the interests of national consumers.

What I'm mostly concerned about is if farming is a source of national fuel and food what are the long term effects on the ecology of the land and will it lead to ocean harvesting for fertilizers. If you use up the mineral content of the land, you have to replace it in order to keep growing crops. I wonder if recovery is possible from wastes effectively. On second thought, I don't want to think about that nor live near it.

Deltasix - April 28, 2006 06:33 PM (GMT)
I just remeber reading that, but it was a few years ago. As I prefaced, I could be incorrect. Either way, they aren't happy about the idea of cross crop contamination.

Kevin Beckman - May 2, 2006 05:49 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (Keys @ Apr 28 2006, 01:29 PM)
But sugar beets are much better source to focus on than corn. They have more energy potential and can be grown twice a year. Why is corn getting such favoritism anyways? Its not in the interests of national consumers.

Probably because corn is heavily subsidized.

Deltasix - July 27, 2006 01:15 PM (GMT)
Lately the more I hear about this corn energy, the less I like it. The impact of the amount of energy to be produced, even if we used our entire crop, is waaaay too low. It doesn't free us from anything, it isn't cost effective, the fuel isn't as good, its just not good.

Kevin Beckman - March 11, 2007 05:12 PM (GMT)
QUOTE
NEW YORK - America is drunk on ethanol. Farmers in the Midwest are sending billions of bushels of corn to refineries that turn it into billions of gallons of fuel. Automakers in Detroit have already built millions of cars, trucks and SUVs that can run on it, and are committed to making millions more. In Washington, politicians have approved generous subsidies for companies that make ethanol.

And just this week,        President Bush arranged with Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva for their countries to share ethanol production technology.

Even alternative fuel aficionados are surprised at the nation's sudden enthusiasm for grain alcohol.

"It's coming on dramatically; more rapidly than anyone had expected," said Nathanael Greene, a senior policy analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council.

You'd think that would be good news, but it actually worries a lot of people.

The problem is, ethanol really isn't ready for prime time. The only economical way to make ethanol right now is with corn, which means the burgeoning industry is literally eating America's lunch, not to mention its breakfast and dinner. And though ethanol from corn may have some minor benefits with regard to energy independence, most analysts conclude its environmental benefits are questionable at best.

Proponents acknowledge the drawbacks of corn-based ethanol, but they believe it can help wean America off imported oil the way methadone helps a junkie kick heroin. It may not be ideal, but ethanol could help the country make the necessary and difficult transition to an environmentally and economically sustainable future.

There are many questions about ethanol's place in America's energy future. Some are easily answered; others, not so much.

WHAT IS ETHANOL?

Ethanol is moonshine. Hooch. Rotgut. White lightning. That explains why the last time Americans produced it in any appreciable amount was during Prohibition. Today, just like back then, virtually all the ethanol produced in the United States comes from corn that is fermented and then distilled to produce pure grain alcohol.

WILL MY CAR RUN ON IT?

Any car will burn gasoline mixed with a small amount of ethanol. But cars must be equipped with special equipment to burn fuel that is more than about 10 percent ethanol. All three of the major American automakers are already producing flex-fuel cars that can run on either gasoline or E85, a mix of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline. Thanks to incentives from the federal government, they have committed to having half the cars they produce run on either E85 or biodiesel by 2012.

HOW FAST IS ETHANOL PRODUCTION GROWING?

About as fast as farmers can grow the corn to make it. According to the Renewable Fuels Association, a trade group, ethanol production has doubled in the past three years, reaching nearly 5 billion gallons in 2006. With 113 ethanol plants currently operating and 78 more under construction, the country's ethanol output is expected to double again in less than two years.

IS ETHANOL BETTER THAN GASOLINE?

For all the environmental and economic troubles it causes, gasoline turns out to be a remarkably efficient automobile fuel. The energy required to pump crude out of the ground, refine it and transport it from oil well to gas tank is about 6 percent of the energy in the gasoline itself.

Ethanol is much less efficient, especially when it is made from corn. Just growing corn requires expending energy — plowing, planting, fertilizing and harvesting all require machinery that burns fossil fuel. Modern agriculture relies on large amounts of fertilizer and pesticides, both of which are produced by methods that consume fossil fuels. Then there's the cost of transporting the corn to an ethanol plant, where the fermentation and distillation processes consume yet more energy. Finally, there's the cost of transporting the fuel to filling stations. And because ethanol is more corrosive than gasoline, it can't be pumped through relatively efficient pipelines, but must be transported by rail or tanker truck.

In the end, even the most generous analysts estimate that it takes the energy equivalent of three gallons of ethanol to make four gallons of the stuff. Some even argue that it takes more energy to produce ethanol from corn than you get out of it, but most agricultural economists think that's a stretch.

BUT AREN'T THERE ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS TO ETHANOL?

If you make ethanol from corn, the environmental benefits are limited. When you consider the greenhouse gases that are released in the growing and refining process, corn-based ethanol is only slightly better with regard to global warming than gasoline. Growing corn also requires the use of pesticides and fertilizers that cause soil and water pollution.

The environmental benefit of corn-based ethanol is felt mostly around the tailpipe. When blended into gasoline in small amounts, ethanol causes the fuel to generate less smog-producing carbon monoxide. That has made it popular in smoggy cities like Los Angeles.

WHAT ABOUT ETHANOL'S ECONOMIC BENEFITS?

Making ethanol is so profitable, thanks to government subsidies and continued high oil prices, that plants are proliferating throughout the Corn Belt. Iowa, the nation's top corn-producing state, is projected to have so many ethanol plants by 2008 it could easily find itself importing corn in order to feed them.

But that depends on the Invisible Hand. Making ethanol is profitable when oil is costly and corn is cheap. And the 51 cent-a-gallon federal subsidy doesn't hurt. But oil prices are off from last year's peaks and corn has doubled in price over the past year, from about $2 to $4 a bushel, thanks mostly to demand from ethanol producers.

High corn prices are causing social unrest in Mexico, where the government has tried to mollify angry consumers by slapping price controls on tortillas. Lester R. Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute, predicts food riots in other major corn-importing countries if something isn't done.

U.S. consumers will soon feel the effects of high corn prices as well, if they haven't already, because virtually everything Americans put in their mouths starts as corn. There's corn flakes, corn chips, corn nuts, and hundreds of other processed foods that don't even have the word corn in them. There's corn in the occasional pint of beer and shot of whisky. And don't forget high fructose corn syrup, a sweetener that is added to soft drinks, baked goods, candy and a lot of things that aren't even sweet.

Some freaks even eat it off the cob.

It's true that animals eat more than half of the corn produced in America; guess who eats them? On Friday the Agriculture Department announced that beef, pork and chicken will soon cost consumers more thanks to the demand of ethanol for corn.

It's also true that there's a difference between edible sweet corn and the feed corn that's used for ethanol production. But because farmers try to grow the most profitable crop they can, higher prices for feed corn tend to discourage the production of sweet corn. That decreases its supply, driving the price of sweet corn up, too.

In fact, many agricultural economists believe rising demand for feed corn has squeezed the supply — and boosted the price — of not just sweet corn but also wheat, soybeans and several other crops.

America's appetite for corn is enormous. But Americans consume so much gasoline that all the corn in the world couldn't make enough ethanol to slake the nation's lust for transportation fuels. Last year ethanol production used 12 percent of the U.S. corn harvest, but it replaced only 2.8 percent of the nation's gasoline consumption.

"If we were to adopt automobile fuel efficiency standards to increase efficiency by 20 percent, that would contribute as much as converting the entire U.S. grain harvest into ethanol," Brown said.

ISN'T THERE A BETTER RENEWABLE FUEL SUBSTITUTE FOR GASOLINE?

Most experts think it will take an array of renewable energy technologies to replace fossil fuels. Ethanol's main drawbacks come not from the nature of the fuel itself, but from the fact that it is made using a critical component of the world's food supply. Ethanol would be more beneficial both environmentally and economically if scientists could figure out how to make it from a nonfood plant that could be grown without the need for fertilizers, pesticides and other inputs. Researchers are currently working on methods to do just that, making ethanol from the cellulose in a wide variety of plants, including poplar trees, switchgrass and cornstalks.

But plant cellulose is more difficult to break down than the starch in corn kernels. That's why people eat corn instead of grass. Plus it tastes better.

There are also technical hurdles related to separating, digesting and fermenting the cellulose fiber. Though it can be done, making ethanol from cellulose-rich material costs at least twice as much as making it from corn.

HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE BEFORE CELLULOSIC ETHANOL IS COMPETITIVE WITH CORN ETHANOL AND GASOLINE?

Some experts estimate that it will take 10 to 15 years before cellulosic ethanol becomes competitive. But Mitch Mandich, CEO of Range Fuels, thinks it will be a lot sooner than that. The Colorado-based company has started building a cellulosic ethanol plant in Georgia that converts wood chips and other waste left behind by the forest products industry. Another company, Iogen Corp., has been producing cellulosic ethanol from wheat, oat and barley straw for several years at a demonstration plant in Ottawa, Canada.

HOW MUCH MORE EFFICIENT WOULD CELLULOSIC ETHANOL BE COMPARED TO CORN ETHANOL?

Studies suggest that cellulosic ethanol could yield at least four to six times the energy expended to produce it. It would also produce less greenhouse gas emissions than corn-based ethanol because much of the energy needed to refine it could come not from fossil fuels, but from burning other chemical components of the very same plants that contained the cellulose.

HOW MUCH GASOLINE COULD CELLULOSIC ETHANOL REPLACE?

The U.S.        Department of Energy estimates that the United States could produce more than a billion tons of cellulosic material annually for ethanol production, from switchgrass grown on marginal agricultural lands to wood chips and other waste produced by the timber industry. In theory, that material could produce enough ethanol to substitute for about 30 percent of the country's oil consumption.

A University of Tennessee study released in November reached similar conclusions. As much as 100 million acres of land would have to be dedicated to energy crops in order to reach the goal of substituting renewable biofuels for 25 percent of the nation's fuel consumption by 2025, the report estimated. That would be a significant fraction of the nation's 800 million acres of cultivable land, the study's authors said, but not enough to cause disruptions in agricultural markets.

"There really aren't any losers," said University of Tennessee agricultural economist Burton English.

REALLY? NO LOSERS AT ALL?

There might be losers. Simple economics dictates that if farmers find it more profitable to grow switchgrass rather than corn, soy or cotton, the price of those commodities is bound to rise in response to falling supply.

"You can produce a lot of ethanol from cellulose without competing with food," said Wallace Tyner, an agricultural economist at Purdue University. "But if you want to get half your fuel supply from it you will compete with food agriculture."

There may also be ecological impacts. The government currently pays farmers not to farm about 35 million acres of conservation land, mostly in the Midwest. Those fallow tracts provide valuable habitat for wildlife, especially birds. Though switchgrass is a good home for most birds, if it became profitable to grow it or another energy crop on conservation land some species could decline.

WILL ETHANOL SOLVE ALL OF OUR PROBLEMS?

Ethanol is certainly a valuable tool in our efforts to address the economic and environmental problems associated with fossil fuels. But even the most optimistic projections suggest it can only replace a fraction of the 140 billion gallons of gasoline that Americans consume every year. It will take a mix of technologies to achieve energy independence and reduce the country's production of greenhouse gases.

"I think we're in a very interesting era. We are recognizing a problem and we are finding lots of potential solutions," said David Tilman, an ecologist at the University of Minnesota.

But if we're serious about achieving energy independence and mitigating global warming, Tilman and other experts said, one of those solutions must be energy conservation.

That means doubling the fuel economy of our automobiles, expanding mass transit and decreasing the amount of energy it takes to light, heat and cool our buildings. Without such measures, ethanol and other innovations will make little more than a dent in the nation's fossil fuel consumption.


Kevin Beckman - July 26, 2007 12:45 AM (GMT)
In other related news the Federal Government paid $1.2 Billion in farm subsidies to farmers who are dead or are no longer farming.

19% had been to farmers who have been dead for more than 7 years.


What happened to oversight?

Lorpius Prime - July 26, 2007 06:44 AM (GMT)
QUOTE (Kevin Beckman @ Jul 25 2007, 07:45 PM)
What happened to oversight?

It made it too hard to bribe people.




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